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***NEW*** Surf Weather Outlook |
Updated at 00:00EDT
Short term Tropical threatNone 0% chance of TS conditions |
Long term Tropical threatNone 0% chance of TS conditions |
HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007 ...FELIX NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE... REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES... 625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES. FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N...72.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007 REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 152 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 142 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. HIGHER SFMR WINDS WERE FOUND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...UP TO 163 KT...BUT THESE MAY HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED BY GROUPEL. A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THIS DROP YIELDED A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 139 KT BASED ON THE LOWEST 150 M LAYER AVERAGE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE PEAK SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 145 KT. AN EYE SONDE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 936 MB WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT. BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE BEING MADE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0000Z 13.8N 72.9W 145 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 14.1N 74.5W 150 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 14.8N 78.0W 145 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 15.4N 81.1W 145 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.5W 145 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W 135 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 91.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 95.0W 90 KT |