This is in the TWO because it involves the wave 93L that is currently near Puerto Rico. Model guidence has been fairly persistent in the past few days for this storm to possibly phase with a low off the Carolina coast by next weekend. Invest 93L has been showing some signs of improvement despite strong shear. Regardless of its rank as a tropical system, it has the potential to have major implications on the weather along the US east coast around day 5-6.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THIS IS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE. NUMEROUS LONG
RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING
OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS TRYING TO ORGANIZE IN THE VICINITY OF
PUERTO RICO. THERE HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN A BUNCH OF MODELS THAT
SEEMINGLY ABSORBED THIS FEATURE INTO A SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. NOW...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THE UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CAROLINA SURFACE LOW WILL HELP STEER THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTHWARD...AND THEN POTENTIALLY NORTHWESTWARD LATE
IN THE WEEK...TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC OR NEW ENGLAND REGION.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS IS NOT EVEN OFFICIALLY A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AS YET...AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SHEAR DOWN
IN THAT REGION AT PRESENT.

THE UPSHOT HERE IS THAT WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT IT WILL BE A SEPARATE DISTINCT SYSTEM
FROM THE CAROLINA LOW. IT MAY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE COAST IN
THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME AND COULD IMPACT THE REGION FROM NORTH CAROLINA
TO NEW ENGLAND.

AT THE VERY LEAST...WE EXPECT THAT A PROLONGED EAST TO NORTHEAST
FETCH OVER THE WATERS TO OUR SOUTH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 10 TO 15 FEET
OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AROUND THU AND MAY GO
HIGHER DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM.
THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE FROM THU INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW GOING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE ANY COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL.

HAVE USED MOSGUIDE WINDS AND REDUCED THEM APPROXIMATELY 25 PERCENT.
CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FRI INCREASING TO LIKELY SAT IN
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SUNDAY...THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS DEPENDENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONCERNS. AT THE MOMENT...IT APPEARS THAT SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.