The main feature in the Atlantic right now is located in the western Caribbean near 18N/82W. Convection has consolidated south of the low level vorticity maximum, and models have been keying in on further development. This disturbance, named invest 93L, is currently moving northwest at around 15kt and will reach the northern Yucatan Peninsula within 48 hours. Model guidance continues it on a northwest track into the Gulf. Beyond that point, a western bend is currently expected, with it likely impacting the Texas / Louisiana coastline by late next week.

At the moment 93L is embedded in a moist environement over 29C waters, but it is under about 20kt of shear from an upper low sitting over the Yucatan, which will restrict any significant development in the near future. However, the upper low will move west toward northern Mexico and by hour 48, shear will be notably lessened over the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the upper low will help mass evacuation over 93L. So at this point, expect the disturbance to begin steady organization and intensification later this weekend and toward early next week.

The ITCZ currently extends along a line from 10N/17W to 4N/50W with an embedded tropical wave near 40W. A strong upper level low visible on water vapor imagery is generating 30 to 60kt of shear north of 10N between 40W and 80W.