In the past week, two fairly interesting "swirls" have shown up on satellite. The first one was an area of energy east of the Bahamas that was left behind after the major nor'easter pulled away. Moderate pressure falls occurred in the area for 12 hours, and we had some support of development from the models, however wind shear quickly tore it apart.

The last one was a more unorganized wave in the central Atlantic in the past two days. It is associated with an upper level trough and will not develop.

This activity will probably continue through May, but any development is unlikely. I think that the 2007 Hurricane Season could have a fairly active start in June and July, with 2 to 3 named storms, 1 to 2 becoming hurricanes. For the first two months, there will be two "hot spots". The first one is common for almost every season and that is the eastern Gulf Coast along the Florida Panhandle. The second area is the Carolina coastline, athough storms forming east of the Bahamas may recurve east before striking land.

The east coast will be fairly safe this year. After a brief threat to the Carolinas in June and July, ridging during ASO will push storms to the south. A persistent trough over the Ohio Valley region will make it more interesting for the Gulf Coast region. I am particularly concerned with the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. I am confident in some action for them this year with a few Rita 05 tracks possible and Emily 05 tracks.

Overall, Expect 13 to 15 named storms, 6 to 7 of which become hurricanes, and 3 of them being major (cat 3,4,5) hurricanes.

New England, you can rest easy for another season.