The same tropical disturbance north of Haiti has not shown much in the way of organization. All of the models still close off the low, however the GFS (the original one forecasting the storm) is now trending east and weaker. The NAM however is going gung-ho with a category 1 hurricane striking the Carolinas. Current thinking is that the NAM is too warm with the core of the storm. While this may turn out to be sub-tropical, I think there is a very low probability of any true tropical development.

NAM forecast from this morning: