http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html



TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC TUE JUL 3 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070703 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070703 1200 070704 0000 070704 1200 070705 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 38.3W 10.1N 39.8W 9.9N 41.3W 9.7N 43.0W
BAMD 9.8N 38.3W 10.5N 40.3W 11.0N 42.3W 11.4N 44.4W
BAMM 9.8N 38.3W 10.2N 39.9W 10.4N 41.5W 10.6N 43.2W
LBAR 9.8N 38.3W 10.3N 40.5W 11.0N 42.9W 11.8N 45.6W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070705 1200 070706 1200 070707 1200 070708 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.6N 45.2W 10.4N 50.5W 11.0N 56.6W 12.5N 63.6W
BAMD 11.9N 46.5W 13.4N 50.4W 15.2N 54.2W 17.2N 58.5W
BAMM 10.9N 45.3W 12.2N 50.2W 13.9N 55.4W 15.6N 60.9W
LBAR 12.3N 48.4W 13.9N 53.9W 15.2N 58.0W 17.2N 62.1W
SHIP 31KTS 25KTS 23KTS 25KTS
DSHP 31KTS 25KTS 23KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 38.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.2N LONM12 = 36.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 8.8N LONM24 = 34.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


Brief analysis:
...It is a very small area of convection in the central Atlantic and moving westward. Dry air is the main problem, with moisture focused to the south of the center. Shear is light, and the small size of it means it will not be affected as much as would a larger area of convection. It appears to have gained some organization, however the models do not bring this to tropical storm intensity. The fact that it is headed west and forecasted to enter the Caribbean means that it has more time to organize and strengthen than it would if it were recurving northward. Even if no development takes place now (which is more likely than not just considering climatology), it could be a threat once it enters the Caribbean if shear levels off there.