At one point two days ago, there were four tropical invests (94L, 95L, 96L, 97L) scouring the Atlantic. Since then, 95L and 97L have diminished, leaving 94L and 96L as possible tropical threats.

94L is currently approaching the Leeward Islands. It has been organizing steadily and latest QuikScat passes indicate 35kt winds. While the NHC is waiting for data from a recon mission later this afternoon, it is possible that a tropical depression or even a tropical storm has already developed. This wave is on the south side of a strong upper level ridge, and in a similar set up to hurricane Dean. Wind shear will remain light for the majority of its life in the Caribbean. The only possible inhibiting factor to steady intensification is a location a little too far south, allowing for possible interaction with South America.

8/31 530am TWO:

A WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS MORNING.  REGARDLESS...
AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  INTERESTS IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

8/31 805am TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 16W MOVING W 15 KT WITH A 
1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. BROAD BUT LOW AMPLITUDE 
LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 9N-14N 
BETWEEN 53W-59W. THIS WAVE/LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER 
ORGANIZED AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 
52W-59W. 

Recon mission:

SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 31/1530Z
D. 13.0N 58.0W
E. 31/1700Z TO 31/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Tropical invest 96L is located in the northern Atlantic, about 200 miles south-southeast of Cape Cod. Deep convection continues to be associated with the storm. The only inhibiting factor is shear, which as kept convection to the northeast of the circulation, however, convection has developed over the center recently, and shear is forecast to lighten up a little as the low moves north. Latest SHIPS intensity forecast brings 96L to 50kts in 48hrs, however shear and colder SSTs will likely prevent tropical intensification past 24hrs. The possibility does exist for some interaction with southeastern New England in the form of shower and thunderstorm bands through the next 36 hours. It is unlikely showers will reach any further inland, but the NWS continues 20% POPs across central New England as the storm combined with a frontal boundary will produce enough moisture and lift for possibly a few pop-up showers. Wind effects will be minimal as the low will remain well off-shore.

8/31 530am TWO:

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT.  ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT THIS
MORNING...AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS.
REGARDLESS...IT COULD STRENGTHEN AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.