805am TWD:

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS IN THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR
29N72W AT 05/0900 UTC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 33N68W. THIS SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT COULD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE E WITHIN 150/180 NM
OF A LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO 31N69W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO JACKSONVILLE.

530am TWO:

THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS LOW HAS BEEN
DRIFTING EASTWARD BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ERRATICALLY DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.

409am AFD:

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION WITH PERHAPS INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. IT IS THE
MORE CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ALL THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOP A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS. THE LATEST 00Z NAM AND 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF APPEAR
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SYSTEMS BAROTROPIC FEATURES...
INTENSIFYING THE LOW MORE CONSIDERABLY THAN THE GFS/UKMET OR
CANADIAN GGEM. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS INITIALLY TEMPERED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDING NORTH OF THE LOW ALONG WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS. EVENTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TRACK
THE LOW TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH
SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES.

IN ADDITION ALL THE LONG RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT
OF DEEPENING HEIGHT FIELDS AND TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
INFLUENCE THE TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS
REGARDING THE OUTCOMES. THEREFORE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE DID NOT
MAKE CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.
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Latest Dvorak classification continues to indicate tropical characteristics, and the FSU models are showing warm core development. The possibility exists for a tropical depression to form later today. Recon is going in this afternoon.

Because of the erratic movement of the storm, the exact track is uncertain even beyond 24 hours. This is why the entire east coast needs to monitor this system closely. The latest model plots have a very large spread but there continues to be shown a coastal threat. 99L is over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and shear will be down within the next 24 hours. The potential exists for a hurricane to be threatening later this weekend. While conditions will need to be nearly perfect for a New England strike, the possibility should not be discounted.