At 5am EDT, the NHS upgraded TD 6 to Tropical Storm Felix.

8am advisory:

TROPICAL STORM FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
800 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...FELIX STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 8 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT
AND THE GRENADINES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...CURACAO AND FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF GRENADA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE FELIX LATER THIS MORNING. 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75
KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.  A WIND GUST OF 46 MPH WAS
RECENTLY REPORTED IN BARBADOS AND A WIND GUST OF 44 MPH WAS
OBSERVED IN ST. VINCENT.  

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
7 INCHES POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...62.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

My first forecast for TS Felix will be issued at 1800z.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Invest 98L was declared at 12z earlier this morning.

12z models:

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1231 UTC SAT SEP 1 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070901 1200 070902 0000 070902 1200 070903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 36.0W 13.7N 38.3W 13.9N 40.6W 14.0N 43.0W
BAMD 13.5N 36.0W 13.8N 39.0W 13.9N 41.9W 14.0N 44.7W
BAMM 13.5N 36.0W 13.6N 38.2W 13.6N 40.6W 13.6N 42.8W
LBAR 13.5N 36.0W 13.6N 38.7W 13.8N 41.4W 14.1N 43.9W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070903 1200 070904 1200 070905 1200 070906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 45.6W 14.8N 50.5W 15.4N 55.8W 15.8N 61.0W
BAMD 14.1N 47.4W 14.9N 52.7W 15.7N 58.1W 16.2N 63.7W
BAMM 13.4N 45.0W 13.4N 49.6W 13.5N 54.2W 13.7N 58.9W
LBAR 14.4N 46.6W 15.0N 51.6W 14.9N 55.9W 12.2N 58.2W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 36.0W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 33.5W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 31.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

---------------------------------------------------------

Felix has potential to become a major hurricane in the Caribbean and 98L could become another on the hurricane list as well.